IMHO on the other hand 3dsMax is not dying.
Maya popularity is a 'seasoned' fashion.
3DsMax is great at modeling. The only software which I see better (in some way ) is Houdini.
Why? Take a look at some REAL pros at Max:
Paul Neale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLwanJo5BSE
Louis Marcoux
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCqUrZ01I7pHefLOQTGvNxg
if any software can do that... let me know.
Maya is great if it comes to animation, rigging, and motion graphics.
In my opinion, using it in gamedev is a BIG mistake.
Take a look at Bioware's MASS EFFECT Andromeda dev diary.
Transition from Max to Maya almost did not killed this project.
On the other hand, NaughtyDog... they use Maya for everything, even as rendering target from consoles.
They use it even as level editor, gameplay editor... everything. BUT.
They put "billions" of hours into transforming it into something which was Maya some time ago.
So Max is great at rendering ( now with Arnold ) take a look at some visualizations.
How many them were ( are ) made using Maya ?? Zero ?? Maybe slightly less 😉
Many days ago Autodesk didn't had even Max. It was developed by Kinetix studio and then bought by Autodesk.
The same with Maya. Developed by Alias and then bought by ... Autodesk 🙂
Because those two programs were developed completely separately they were aiming for completely different direction. And They didn't compete actually back in the days.
Initially Maya was aiming at car design, nearly 100% nurbs driven modeling workflow and tons of tools and optimizations towards this 'model of creation'. Not to mention is robust inter connectivity. Oh man... this program can do 'anything / everything'.
Max... from the beginning was based on polygons. To see a difference take a look and compare what Maya has to offer with nurbs and what Max. As a contrast, try to extrude spline shape along other spline with Maya. Good luck with both 🙂
Maya is NOT well designed for modeling. Why ? Constant freezing transformations, clearing history every 5-10 clicks , no procedural modeling whatsoever.
"Today 3dsMax is a bloated dinosaur forced to carry around a lot of dead weight."
Oh, this is good. Maya as an another dinosaur, has its own flaws too:
Lack of modifiers, lack of any even tiny glimpse of procedural content creation, constant clearing history,
lack of modeling tools, nearly constant scene cleanup,
modeling is pure garbage in my opinion ( as an example : try to mirror anything with rotated center ), possible to make manifold faces, vertices, and groups in outliner... every 2-3 clicks you have a new group with transforms...
tools to being no a tool but rather a 'thing' to solve problems caused by other tools.
Example : Tool to replace invalid meshes in the scene with selected mesh.
Invalid meshes ? Why making them in the first place ??
not to mention inability to open its own files... from time to time...
So in other words none of current Autodesk programs is dying. Look at Mudbox. Raised from the grave.
"I expect 3dsMax to be here for as long as the sales are good."
Yeah... you can expect it with every program which will sell badly 🙂
From my perspective and what I witness, many studios are transitioning into Max again...
So, at the end... every program has its own unique way of pissing users off 🙂
And all comes to simple ( I hope ) calculation: what given program has to offer in exchange for frustration ?
For me it is 3dsMax and Blender.
But I'm not an animator / rigger and I'm using Max since ver. 1.0 for Windows 95/NT.
So. Pick the one which is the least annoying for you and master it. It doesn't really matter which program you use.
If it serves its purpose - it is fine.