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Message 1 of 123
pcaruthers
1422 Views, 122 Replies

bring on 2010

good morning everyone.

what a year it has been, we've all seen our share of layoffs, lost jobs, and no work. I'm curious to see if anyone out there is actually recovering....Here in Florida, we are not. Most of our work is in the elderly housing arena, we've managed to keep the firm afloat with these projects even though they are few in far between. Our reputation in this area has been a huge advantage for us. But there is still no commercial jobs that require Bank $$. The road sides are littered with half completed housing developments, and construction jobs that have been cancelled. Construction companies are dropping like flies along with many architectural firms... Everything we've done with exception of a couple residential projects has gone through HUD, and now HUD is so backed up it takes months to get HUD approvals.

How is everyone doing? what does it look like on the horizon for you and your company? where are you located?

Paul Caruthers
Bessolo Design Group
St. Pete, FL
122 REPLIES 122
Message 61 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

A bit of a drive but...

I'm in Dayton, Ohio (one of the fastest dying cities in the United States)
and for a proper wage, I could be tempted to the dark side... :O)

Have fun,
Dave
--
The Great Way is very level,
but man Greatly delights in torturous paths...
-- Te, Chapter 53
-- Te Tao Ching

wrote:
Cincinnati/ N. KY area.

At the beginning of 2009 I was working for the largest local homebuilder,
and they decided to expand to the Columbus area as well in 2008 to take
advantage of the huge land deals forming as bigger builders like Centex
pulled from that area. They strugguled against their budget and planned to
operate at a 2mil loss for FY09, but the stock crash of Sept. 08 finally
caught-up with them in April, forcing the 2nd major downsizing in 2 years.
I was one of the victims on the Arch staff, which was reduced by 5 people
down to 10. Company-wide what had been a 250+ employee endeavour was now
down to, I believe, 80 employees including sales and field staff.

The other major homebuilder in the city was having similar problems and
shrunk as well, reducing their formerly 45-person national department down
to about 15 people.

Using my contacts I was able to get a position with another builder who was,
amazingly, growing in the area. They had an opportunity for a CAD Manager/
Plan developer and I leapt at it.

Evidently, the corporate HQ had replaced the former Div. Pres, in Nov '08
and the new DP was making radical changes with the intent of selling houses
"in this market" not the one from 4 years ago. The staff was reduced down 8
positions, prices slashed, salaries and subs payouts were reduced as well
with landdeals being made on individual lots, not wholesale purcahse of
subdivisions. Then, as sales volume increased hires were made slowly and
deliberatly, as the workload required.

Result: cheaper houses that are selling against a market that wasn't hit as
hard as others nationally, but was seeing a dip in value. I was just told
this morning that we're going to post a profit for the year, one of only a
couple national divisions that will do so.

We're still anxious about the next year, but think we have a plan to
continue growth or at the least maintain the staff size. The picture's not
rosy by any means but it's not bleak, either.
Message 62 of 123
dgorsman
in reply to: pcaruthers

Central Alberta, here. We took a big kick in the teeth a while back when both oil and (natural) gas plummeted - lots of contract folks had their contracts paid out and were shown the door. Thankfully we have a steady base in up- and midstream gas work, and have a foot in the door in heavy oil and now in power generation. With oil prices bopping up and down and some political problems not many want to commit the big bucks needed for major projects that keep designers employed for several years. With gas prices continuing to be on the low side clients won't get the return they need to justify new projects either. On the plus side, with many refineries aging, gas fields ending their life span there's some work in revamps and short turnaround projects (the latter is one of our big selling points, getting work done for low cost on very tight schedules).
----------------------------------
If you are going to fly by the seat of your pants, expect friction burns.
"I don't know" is the beginning of knowledge, not the end.


Message 63 of 123
Charles_Shade
in reply to: pcaruthers

$82 per bbl this afternoon. It's looking good for you!
Hopefully all that stimulus will not find its way into the green energy sector. 😜
Regards, Charles Shade
Message 64 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

On Wed, 6 Jan 2010 09:02:07 -0800, Terry W. Dotson wrote:

>> Bush did a knock up job in 8 years only a fool could be so blind and
>> make a mess like he did and then wipe his hands a run ...

>We had 7 *very* prosperous years under Bush. The problems began in late
>2007, coincidentally 18mo after Democrats took control of Congress.

Yep, the economy grew at a decent clip, even considering the horrible dive the
economy took right after 9/11. Just because things weren't going as gangbusters
as they were in the '90s during the whole Dot Com nonsense, people think we were
all in a second Great Depression and that GWB was the root cause.

And I seem to remember Bush and McCain warning people of unsustainable rises in
residential home prices, and the bad mortgage lending practices and the goofery
at Fannie/Freddie that Democrats, specifically, were responsible for.

Matt
matt@stachoni.com
Message 65 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

On Wed, 6 Jan 2010 07:44:14 -0800, Joe Blizzard
wrote:

>"Matt Stachoni" wrote
>> modern firms who are wholly into BIM, 5D construction
>> practices, and a whole panopoly of current industry buzzwords

heeheeheehee!

Matt
matt@stachoni.com
Message 66 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

On Wed, 6 Jan 2010 08:23:16 -0800, Bernardmadoff <> wrote:

>Providing you do not mind the new 4 hour airport security checks, lack of inflight entertainment and blankets i would jump on a plane and head East, you will never look back.

Plus the food's awesome!

Matt
matt@stachoni.com
Message 67 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

I'm doing my part to stimulate manufacturing. On March 17th, I'll be
presenting the "It's a Duesy" Manufacturing Revival conference in the
heart on Automotive Alley here in the Midwest. The conference, March
17th, 2010 will be held at the Auburn Cord Duesenberg Museum,
Auburn Indiana.

Many, many top speakers, including Lynn Allen will
present at this one day event. Early Registration starts Monday January
11th, 2010. The event includes a full learning track for users, and a
separate track for the bosses. Great opportunity to see all the great
cars as well!

While this meeting is primarily manufacturing oriented, the management
track applies to all types of firms and various disciplines.

If you want more information, go to http://teknigroup.com and sign up
for a subscription to "The Creative Inventor Magazine.


--
Dennis Jeffrey, Autodesk Inventor Certified Expert
Autodesk Manufacturing Implementation Certified Expert.
Instructor/Author/Sr. App Engr. Tel. (260) 399-6615
http://teknigroup.com
Message 68 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

Come to the event in Indiana March 17th. Lots o networking opportunities
here.
--
Dennis Jeffrey, Autodesk Inventor Certified Expert
Autodesk Manufacturing Implementation Certified Expert.
Instructor/Author/Sr. App Engr. Tel. (260) 399-6615
http://teknigroup.com
Message 69 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

"Dennis Jeffrey" wrote:
I'm doing my part to stimulate manufacturing. On March 17th, I'll be
presenting the "It's a Duesy" Manufacturing Revival conference in the
heart on Automotive Alley here in the Midwest. The conference, March
17th, 2010 will be held at the Auburn Cord Duesenberg Museum,
Auburn Indiana.

> snip <

If you want more information, go to http://teknigroup.com and sign up
for a subscription to "The Creative Inventor Magazine.

> snip <

I believe I shall take a peek. Thanks!

Have fun,
Dave
Message 70 of 123
AllenJessup
in reply to: pcaruthers

I guess we do some things differently. Of course we are planning years in advance. But a lot of that planning involves funding. We never take a project much past the investigatory phase without some promise of funding. It would cost too much to take the design to final without the offset of funding. We are working on projects where some will not come up in the funding cycle for construction for 5 years. But we have funding in place to do the design work. If the design is done in-house the funding offsets our salaries. If the design is done by consultants the monies go to pay them.
So while we may have had many jobs in the works at the time. We didn't have any that where the design was complete and waiting for funding. We couldn't even use the stimulus money to move a project up. If it was scheduled to get construction funding in 2014 we couldn't say give us stimulus money and we'll build it now. Having any funding made it ineligible as a stimulus project.
That's why all the money is going to guide rail and bridge painting. Those were projects we could throw together in a couple of months. Even at that with all the County, State and Federal requirements to meet it was very difficult do get thing in under the wire.
Allen


Allen Jessup
Engineering Specialist / CAD Manager

Message 71 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

Which 7? I'm looking back over my tax returns for his years in office
and before him I would get profit sharing checks every year. Under Bush
I never got one, even had to take a pay cut. Not because of a change in
policy but because profits disappeared. The situation hasn't gotten
better since the hole he dug was so deep. Same situation of no bonuses
under the father. Under Clinton I got an average of $10G's, lowest was
8G's and it went as high as 15G's.

Terry W. Dotson wrote:
> Vector2 wrote:
>
>> Bush did a knock up job in 8 years only a fool could be so blind and
>> make a mess like he did and then wipe his hands a run ...
>
> We had 7 *very* prosperous years under Bush. The problems began in late
> 2007, coincidentally 18mo after Democrats took control of Congress.
>
> Terry
Message 72 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

jg wrote:

> ... before him I would get profit sharing checks every year. Under
> Bush I never got one, even had to take a pay cut. Not because of a
> change in policy but because profits disappeared.

Sounds deceptive, or at the very least a personal problem.

Terry
Message 73 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

jg wrote:

> ... but because profits disappeared.

There are a lot of reasons for that, no need to blame any administration
for your companies personal failure in good economic times.

Terry
Message 74 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

Competitors were closing their doors during the same period. We were
lucky to keep our jobs here. They weren't good economic times. I know a
lot of diehard republicans that became democrats because of Bush. Show
me statistics of any industry outside of military suppliers that did
better under Bush. Few and far between. I've looked at the statistics,
have you? In the 8 years under Bush, the manufacturing capacity of our
industry dropped 40% locally because of companies closing their doors,
unfortunately the demand dropped 70% because of the economy, so we are
looking at 60% of capacity fighting for 30% of opportunities.

Terry W. Dotson wrote:
> jg wrote:
>
>> ... but because profits disappeared.
>
> There are a lot of reasons for that, no need to blame any administration
> for your companies personal failure in good economic times.
>
> Terry
Message 75 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

our company (and our industry overall reflected these same results during
this time) had 4 of its best years *ever* during Bushy's 8 years in office.
(100 years this company has been in business)
The last two were down significantly, the one prior to that was average.
The last two years are the only times around here things have gotten really
difficult, resulting in staff reductions of all sorts, company closings,
etc. (industry wide)

"jg" wrote in message
news:6314009@discussion.autodesk.com...
Competitors were closing their doors during the same period. We were
lucky to keep our jobs here. They weren't good economic times. I know a
lot of diehard republicans that became democrats because of Bush. Show
me statistics of any industry outside of military suppliers that did
better under Bush. Few and far between. I've looked at the statistics,
have you? In the 8 years under Bush, the manufacturing capacity of our
industry dropped 40% locally because of companies closing their doors,
unfortunately the demand dropped 70% because of the economy, so we are
looking at 60% of capacity fighting for 30% of opportunities.

Terry W. Dotson wrote:
> jg wrote:
>
>> ... but because profits disappeared.
>
> There are a lot of reasons for that, no need to blame any administration
> for your companies personal failure in good economic times.
>
> Terry
Message 76 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

jg wrote:

> They weren't good economic times. I know a lot of diehard republicans
> that became democrats because of Bush.

And that situation is likely reversing today.

> I've looked at the statistics, have you?

You are referring to the statistics of your industry, or a subset
thereof. This is not a reflection of the economy as a whole (for
example the DOW grew from 8000 to 14000 in the period from 03-08).

> In the 8 years under Bush, the manufacturing capacity of our industry
> dropped 40% locally because of companies closing their doors,
> unfortunately the demand dropped 70% because of the economy ...

Demand for what? Is there the very real possibility it was being
produced in China and that's actually what caused it.

I'm speaking from broad economic terms across all industries and from a
personal standpoint of selling software to multiple design/engineering
disciplines.

Terry
--
Never start any job without the right tools!
AutoCAD Add-on Tools at http://www.dotsoft.com
Message 77 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

I can't argue that your industry, in your locale, was or was not doing
well. Nationwide statistics for the economy across the board show that
very few industries showed improvement over what they saw in previous
years. Banking, oil, and military suppliers (direct and indirect) saw
some of the gains, but few others did. Housing saw some gains for a
short period, but only at the expense of the eventual bubble bursting.
The first signs of decline in the local housing industry were in 2003
when we had a minor decline (I discard results immediately after 9/11
since the country was in a state of shock and numbers from that time
period are erratic at best.) Unfortunately that decline just kept
getting steeper until we found ourselves in the mess we are in now.

Interestingly enough, under Reagan the economy did pretty well, although
I believe that a lot of problems that Bush senior had with the economy
were inherited from the policies Reagan instituted that gave good short
term results at the expense of long term prosperity. Trickle down
economics with high deficit spending will eventually cause problems,
although some people benefit in bad times too.

Frankly, I think that a lot of people running for office call themselves
Reagan conservatives but would be so far from Reagan's philosophies that
Reagan would disavow them and similarly, today's Republican party would
consider Reagan to be too centrist for their tastes.

Paul Kolarik wrote:
> our company (and our industry overall reflected these same results during
> this time) had 4 of its best years *ever* during Bushy's 8 years in office.
> (100 years this company has been in business)
> The last two were down significantly, the one prior to that was average.
> The last two years are the only times around here things have gotten really
> difficult, resulting in staff reductions of all sorts, company closings,
> etc. (industry wide)
>
> "jg" wrote in message
> news:6314009@discussion.autodesk.com...
> Competitors were closing their doors during the same period. We were
> lucky to keep our jobs here. They weren't good economic times. I know a
> lot of diehard republicans that became democrats because of Bush. Show
> me statistics of any industry outside of military suppliers that did
> better under Bush. Few and far between. I've looked at the statistics,
> have you? In the 8 years under Bush, the manufacturing capacity of our
> industry dropped 40% locally because of companies closing their doors,
> unfortunately the demand dropped 70% because of the economy, so we are
> looking at 60% of capacity fighting for 30% of opportunities.
>
> Terry W. Dotson wrote:
>> jg wrote:
>>
>>> ... but because profits disappeared.
>> There are a lot of reasons for that, no need to blame any administration
>> for your companies personal failure in good economic times.
>>
>> Terry
Message 78 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

jg wrote:

> I can't argue that your industry, in your locale, was or was not
> doing well.

We don't have *any* customers within 30 miles. My personal stance is
from selling software globally for many years.

> that decline just kept getting steeper until we found ourselves in
> the mess we are in now.

And unless I missed it, your still not telling what your company
produces. Looks like spin to me.

Terry
Message 79 of 123
patrick1256
in reply to: pcaruthers

When Obama became President - i made a statement of the second coming of Jimmy Carter. Boy this is starting to play out, with all this spending inflation is a coming - which will mean unemployment is going to go up and interest rates will go up to try and stall inflation. You think the construction industry is doing bad now, wait for interest rates to go up.

pat
Message 80 of 123
Anonymous
in reply to: pcaruthers

My industry is structural design and fabrication. We design and build
wood trusses. At one point China approached our firm to do design work
for them for their own local use. Unfortunately, the work we do requires
materials that are graded by standards associations for strength
characteristics and our software is based on the North American
standards for lumber dimensions. They could not get the inspections and
did not have access to lumber in the quality, sizes or quantities
necessary, so we could not establish design criteria or provide usable
working drawings. They don't sell to our market, so they did not steal
any of our work. We have been approached by India to let them run our
engineering, but they could not work in a way that was usable by us.

Dow Jones averages are a very poor indicator of the economy. If you look
at the ratios of stocks in that period, the numbers indicate that during
that period the numbers kept increasing which reflects optimism, not
profits. If you invested in the market in that time period and avoided
the Enron's, Global Crossing's, etc, and got your money out before the
bubble burst, you made a big profit, but somebody else took a loss. Look
at GDP adjusted for inflation and you will see a steady decline.

Your personal standpoint reflects your position in the industry. As your
name and reputation grew, confidence in your product also grew, and that
resulted in sales. I congratulate you on that as you worked hard and
deserved your profits. However the general state of the economy
declined. Was it Bush's fault? Maybe. Or maybe it was the fault of a man
who has the same last name as me but with a slightly different spelling:
Alan Greenspan. In either case, it is always easier to blame the guy who
was elected when you didn't vote for him. (I didn't vote for him either
time, but then I couldn't. I was still a Canadian citizen until 3 years
ago.)

Personally I think that the current bust was the fault of both
Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats passed laws 10 or so years ago
that made the mortgage bust possible. The Republicans wasted our
international goodwill and military resources (and kept it out of budget
accounting) by invading Iraq when they knew it was uninvolved in 9/11.

Terry W. Dotson wrote:
> jg wrote:
>
>> They weren't good economic times. I know a lot of diehard republicans
>> that became democrats because of Bush.
>
> And that situation is likely reversing today.
>
>> I've looked at the statistics, have you?
>
> You are referring to the statistics of your industry, or a subset
> thereof. This is not a reflection of the economy as a whole (for
> example the DOW grew from 8000 to 14000 in the period from 03-08).
>
>> In the 8 years under Bush, the manufacturing capacity of our industry
>> dropped 40% locally because of companies closing their doors,
>> unfortunately the demand dropped 70% because of the economy ...
>
> Demand for what? Is there the very real possibility it was being
> produced in China and that's actually what caused it.
>
> I'm speaking from broad economic terms across all industries and from a
> personal standpoint of selling software to multiple design/engineering
> disciplines.
>
> Terry

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